The Unbreakable Bond: Why Ethiopia Can’t Abandon Somaliland

The Unbreakable Bond: Why Ethiopia Can’t Abandon Somaliland Somaliland, a self-declared republic in the Horn of Africa, has maintained autonomy for over three decades, with its own government, currency, and military, despite a lack of international recognition. One of its strongest supporters, Ethiopia, shares deep strategic, historical, and geopolitical ties with Somaliland. These connections make it highly unlikely that Ethiopia will abandon Somaliland. This article explores why Ethiopia values its relationship with Somaliland, considering the growing international interest from global powers like the USA, UK, and France. Historical Parallels: Ireland and Somaliland’s Fight for Self-Determination Somaliland’s struggle for independence echoes Ireland’s journey to freedom. The 1916 Easter Rising marked Ireland’s determination to break free from British rule, much like Somaliland’s Somali National Movement (SNM), which fought Siad Barre’s authoritarian regime in the 1980s. In both cases, external support played a pivotal role—Germany in Ireland’s case, and Ethiopia in Somaliland’s. Ethiopia’s rivalry with Somalia over regions like Ogaden spurred its support for the SNM, solidifying the alliance and aiding Somaliland’s path toward de facto independence. Ethiopia’s Strategic Interests in Somaliland Ethiopia’s unwavering support for Somaliland stems from three key factors: 1. Economic Imperative: Berbera Port: As a landlocked nation, Ethiopia is heavily dependent on access to seaports. Berbera Port in Somaliland offers Ethiopia a critical alternative to Djibouti, allowing it to diversify its trade routes and reduce economic vulnerabilities.

2. Regional Stability: Somaliland has achieved relative stability compared to Somalia, which struggles with ongoing conflict and terrorism. For Ethiopia, a stable Somaliland serves as a buffer zone, protecting its own Somali region, which shares a border with Somaliland. 3. Political and Diplomatic Leverage: Although Ethiopia officially recognizes Somalia’s territorial integrity, its close relationship with Somaliland provides leverage in its regional diplomacy. This helps Ethiopia maintain a leadership role in the Horn of Africa while promoting stability and economic integration. Ethiopia’s Influence Within the African Union Ethiopia’s hosting of the African Union (AU) headquarters in Addis Ababa gives it significant influence over the AU’s agenda. If Ethiopia were to formally recognize Somaliland, it could sway other African nations to support Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia’s diplomatic ties across Africa place it in a unique position to reshape the AU’s stance, which currently supports Somalia’s territorial integrity. Global Strategic Interest in Somaliland The geopolitical importance of Somaliland’s location near the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea cannot be overlooked. Its position is crucial for securing international shipping routes and combating piracy and terrorism, making it a strategic asset for global powers. 1. USA and the Pentagon’s Interest in a Military Base: The U.S. has shown growing interest in establishing a military base in Somaliland to counter terrorism (Al-Shabaab, ISIS), combat piracy, and secure the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints.

2. UK and France’s Strategic Alignment Against Russia and China: Both the UK and France view Somaliland as a critical ally in countering Russia’s and China’s expanding influence in Africa. As China builds a naval base in Djibouti and Russia seeks to expand its presence in the region, the West sees Somaliland as a key player in the geopolitical game. 3. Somaliland as a Strategic Asset for Western Powers: With its stable governance and proximity to conflict zones like Yemen, Somaliland offers an ideal environment for military bases and securing shipping lanes. The UAE’s investment in developing Berbera Port further enhances its strategic value, making it attractive for Western military and economic interests. Ethiopia’s Role in Facilitating Somaliland’s Global Standing Ethiopia’s historical ties and strategic interests position it as a pivotal player in advancing Somaliland’s international recognition. Should Ethiopia formally acknowledge Somaliland’s independence, it could trigger wider recognition from key global powers like the U.S., UK, and France. Additionally, Ethiopia’s diplomatic standing in the African Union could influence other African countries to reconsider their opposition to Somaliland’s independence. The Role of Major Global Powers in Somaliland’s Independence Bid 1. USA and Strategic Interests: The Pentagon’s desire for a military base in Somaliland aligns with broader U.S. efforts to fight terrorism, secure maritime routes, and counter China and Russia’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa.